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Category — Overseas Markets

US Markets Gone Wild.

This article is contributed by Pinnacledigest.com. One of the TOP sites for up to date information on the Canadian and US Stock Markets. For more information subscribe to their free newsletter.

Dear member,

The US stock markets have risen to dizzying heights, trading at or within a few points of all-time nominal highs. This recovery, led by the Federal Reserve and its cheap money, ironically has left gold and many commodities reeling.

USD: The Best of a Bad Lot

For commodity investors, the health of the USD has to be a constant focus. The dollar’s top in 2010 and subsequent decline led to a new all-time high in gold as the greenback came under pressure amidst debt ceiling discussions and consecutive years of $1 trillion plus deficits. The debt ceiling has been kept quiet of late, but the deficits are still here (and getting bigger).

The strong USD (of late) is being sustained by the general fallout in Europe and the announced doubling of Japan’s money supply, which came in early April. These two historic occurrences have kept the dollar as a safe haven currency, despite record low interest rates and a struggling economy. [Read more →]

May 23, 2013   Comments Off

I’m Bullish on the Japanese Stock Market…Here’s Why.

I’m Bullish on the Japanese Stock Market…Here’s Why

The market is used to being disappointed by Japan.

Investors were clearly holding their breath as the new central bank chief, Haruhiko Kuroda, prepared to announce his big plans for jump-startingJapan’s market out of deflation.

For once, they needn’t have worried.

After Kuroda revealed the central bank’s latest decisions, the Nikkei 225 rocketed and the Japanese yen tumbled against the US dollar.

Clearly, it worked.

And the good news for investors in Japan is that this could be the final push needed to convince the wider market that this time, Japan really is on the comeback trail… [Read more →]

April 9, 2013   Comments Off

Why the Market is Watching Japan.

Why the Market is Watching Japan

All eyes will be on Japan today because there is now a huge amount of pressure on Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor Kuroda to come through with the goods after a lot of jawboning. A two day meeting will finish and the market wants to be given some lollies, otherwise there will be a lot of whinging and stomping of the feet.

The Japanese Yen has been belted 20% in the last eight months on the back of expectations that the BOJ will start printing madly again. Kuroda has landed the new job as BOJ governor on the promise of giving the market and Prime Minister Abe what he wants.

Investors have been borrowing in the Yen and investing offshore safe in the knowledge that the Yen will probably weaken further. If Kuroda meets stiff resistance to his plans or doesn’t go far enough you can expect to see a sharp rise in the Yen and a big fall in equity markets as carry trades are unwound.

I think some of the buying in the Yen over the last week has probably been cautious traders unwinding a few positions just in case the news is bad.

The way I like to look at situations is to ask where the risk lies, and I have to say that the risk is to the downside in equities and upside in the Yen with this announcement because it will be easy for Kuroda to disappoint the market but quite difficult for him to pleasantly surprise the market. Now we watch and wait.

Murray Dawes
Editor, Slipstream Trader

This article is contributed by Money Morning. Click Here to Subscribe to their free newsletter.

April 6, 2013   Comments Off

A New Chapter for Turkey’s Market.

A New Chapter for Turkey’s Market

In 2012, Turkey was the best performer among the emerging markets we track on our Periodic Table showing a decade of returns. All developing countries rose last year, but stocks in Turkey climbed an astounding 56 percent.

While visiting the country, I was happy to see my explicit knowledge of Turkey’s market growth was supported by my tacit knowledge.

Istanbul has been in the midst of a fantastic transformation from an impoverished population to one of affluence. Popping up among the beautiful Ottoman mosques, Byzantine churches, palaces and bazaars are ultra-contemporary art sculptures, shopping malls and lush landscaping.

This blend of ancient with modern fits well with the young, vibrant and culturally diverse crowd that hangs out in the local cafes, shops and galleries. [Read more →]

March 21, 2013   Comments Off

Can This Indicator Predict The Dow Jones Next Move?

Look, Murray’s game is technical analysis. It involves studying charts and working out the probability of an event happening. You can check out Murray’s latest analysis and where he thinks the market is heading here.

This analysis played a big part in the trades he has recommended on the big Aussie resource stocks and Aussie banks.

And if one of Murray’s favourite indicators is anything to go by, it may not be long before the Dow’s glory streak comes to an end

As you may know, your editor isn’t much chop when it comes to technical analysis.

In fact, until we first met Murray nearly six years ago, we didn’t give technical analysis the time of day. It really was just squiggly lines and a lot of what we considered ‘Hindsight Harry’ analysis.

But after just half an hour of sitting with Murray and him explaining how he interprets the stock markets…well, it was as though we’d found the Rosetta Stone of technical analysis.

And we’re not kidding either. [Read more →]

March 18, 2013   Comments Off

Eating the Dow Jones for Breakfast.

Eating the Dow Jones for Breakfast

How to get past money illusion now that it’s day-break in America once again…

Forget about the Apple effect. Not including AAPL in its 30 constituents is just one of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s many quirks.

So too is its ever-changing Dow divisor, a number seemingly picked at random to smooth out the math in the DJIA. But neither of these oddities changes the fact that this oddest of equity averages is hitting new all-time highs right now.

Signalling, if you ever doubted it, that the United States’ economy is being re-forged as well.

But wait! If you think there’s any link between the rise of the stock market and the health of the economy, then you might want to double-check the Dow’s value in real inflation-adjusted dollars.

Or better still, now that it’s morning in America once again, adjust the Dow by the cost of eating your breakfast… [Read more →]

March 8, 2013   Comments Off

The Poster-Child for the US Shale Gas Revolution.

The Poster-Child for the US Shale Gas Revolution

There’s been plenty of celestial action in the last few days.

An asteroid, 2012 DA14, missed the earth by a whisker on Saturday morning.

When I say whisker, it missed us by just 27,000 kilometres. But for context, the moon is 384,000 km away, so the asteroid was pretty close. If it had hit planet earth it would have wiped out everything for at least a few hundred kilometres.

And just when all the telescopes were pointed that way, another asteroid snuck up on us from the other direction. It burnt through the Russian skies, injuring 1,000 people as its sonic boom shattered windows.

Two totally unrelated one-in-a-century asteroid events in a single day! Where’s Bruce Willis when you need him? [Read more →]

February 21, 2013   Comments Off

Here’s Why I’m Proudly Bullish About China’s Economy.

Here’s Why I’m Proudly Bullish About China’s Economy

It amazes how anyone can be bearish on China’s economy  when its has just grown FIVE-FOLD in the space of ten years.

That’s right. My name is Alex Cowie — and I’m bullish about China.

It’s not exactly the most popular view in this office, but it’s what I believe.

We’ve had a great few emails recently asking us what we’re playing at, like this one from Phil:

‘Did I miss something? I’m not sure whether you guys have short memories, but what happened to your big predictions of China going bad?’

Well, one of the good things about working here is that no one tells you what to believe. There is no ‘party line’ we have to tow. Most of the Editors are bearish on China.

But I’m pretty much the odd one out. I’ve been unashamedly bullish on China for years now.

In fact in the January Diggers & Drillers newsletter, I’m shouting my pro-China view from the rooftops.

Because thanks to China, I actually think that the big trade of 2013 is to buy the best of the Australian resource market’s beaten up  junior mining stocks

Now I’m not saying this because China just announced the first increase in its annual economic growth rate for two years. If you missed it, on Friday the December quarter GDP jumped to 7.9%, from 7.4%.

 

China’s Economy Grows for the First Time in Two Years

China's Economic Growth Over The Years

Source: Trading Economics

Any kind of improvement in China’s growth statistics is good news for resource stocks of course. As the world’s biggest consumer of commodities, Chinese economic growth will generate a jump in commodity demand.

But a single jump in quarterly growth isn’t the reason I’m making a Tarzan-like battle-cry for copper, iron ore and coal.

It’s something else altogether — something political — that makes me believe that 2013 will be the most incredible turn around year for the beaten up mining juniors.

Now I can’t give too much away as that would be unfair to paying readers of Diggers & Drillers. But I’d like to share with you a snippet to give you an idea of what I think’s in store for the year:

…I want to go on record today as saying that CHINA IS DOING JUST FINE.

 The China bears like to overlook that the latest growth rate of 7.9% is above target (and never mind that 7.9% is still stellar growth by any standards).

And let’s remember that 7.9% growth today adds far more to China’s economy — and therefore requires more commodities — than 13% growth did when China was a third of the size.

 So I want to start my first letter of the year by telling you the China-bears are about to be forced to eat their words, as it drives the next leg up in resource stocks. This month’s copper stock tip won’t be the only one looking at a 260% gain.

…This [infrastructure spending] will require vast amounts of commodities. I reckon mining stocks are just about to be reminded of what it feels like to have China screaming for more of their product.

And the good news for you is that this comes right at a time when junior stocks in the industrial commodities of copper, iron ore and coal are dirt cheap.

To me this spells out the perfect recipe for what should be the big trade of 2013.

And they really are dirt cheap.

After selling off since early 2011, many good quality mining juniors in iron ore, coal and copper are now less than half the price they were two years ago.

This includes the ones with good, profitable projects, and strong growth prospects ahead.

The first Diggers & Drillers tip of the year is a copper stock, but there will soon be other tips in juniors involved with iron ore, coal, as well as the less well known minor ingredients of steel.

Starting with copper was a ‘no brainer’.

The reason was the price had done next to nothing for 12 months.

That may sound like fuzzy logic, but think about it. There was every reason for copper to collapse last year — the markets were about to crash, China’s economy was supposedly collapsing, and the financial markets were apparently about to implode — Yet Copper held firm all year.

No Worries for Dr Copper in 2013

No worries for Dr Copper in 2013

Source: Stockcharts

I’m expecting the Chinese economy to have a good year in 2013, and as the world’s biggest consumer of copper by far — at 43% of global consumption — the copper price could be in for an increase. And sure enough, China has just set an all-time record for copper imports.

Back in 2010 I made the same case, and the other guys here thought I was nuts. But you can see in the chart, copper rose by over 60% in twelve months.

Now I’m not expecting that to happen again, but a 10-20% rise is possible. The technical chart looks quite bullish to me, and the fundamentals look good too.

So copper was the first industrial metal to kick the year off with.

But as readers of Diggers & Drillers will find out over the next few months, coking coal and iron ore are in hot pursuit.

Dr Alex Cowie

Editor, Diggers & Drillers

This article is contributed by Money Morning. Click Here to Subscribe to their free newsletter.

January 25, 2013   Comments Off

‘The Chinese Economy Will Pick Up in 2013 and So Will the Stock Market’.

‘The Chinese Economy Will Pick Up in 2013 and So Will the Stock Market’

For a view on the future of the Chinese economy, who better to ask than its businessmen? I had the chance to talk to two while I was in Hong Kong and Guangdong over Christmas.

The first, Jim, never went to school. He was working in a Hong Kong factory at the age of nine, where he made just £4 a month — all of which went to his family. Today, he lives in a large house in Hong Kong, has four cars, is a member of the prestigious Jockey Club and thinks nothing of betting a few thousand pounds on the horses at Happy Valley.

Jim has three fine and well educated sons, but he wonders whether they will do as well as he has without the incentive of an escape from poverty. After working for others for several years, he set up his own clothing factory in China, he made a good business supplying customers in Europe, and provided many jobs for loyal and grateful staff. [Read more →]

January 24, 2013   Comments Off

Why U.S. Auto Companies Are Betting Big on China for 2013 Sales.

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A combination of hard work and good fortune will pay off for U.S. auto companies in China in 2013, with Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) both expected to book record sales.

Both U.S. auto companies set sales records in 2012. Sales of Ford vehicles in China rose 21% year over year to 626,616.

GM, which is neck-and neck with Volkswagen AG (VLKAY) for the title of auto sales leader in China, reported combined sales from its joint ventures of 2.85 million vehicles, a year-over-year increase of 11.7% over 2011.

Both Ford and GM have built factories in China, and both U.S. auto companies plan to continue expanding there in 2013.

Ford plans to introduce 15 new models in China and double its production capacity to 1.2 million vehicles by 2015. The company also plans to double its network of dealerships in the country. [Read more →]

January 17, 2013   Comments Off