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Weekly Ramblings of an Australian Stock Trader - incorporating
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Category — Investing

A Reasonable Way Investors Can Predict The Future.

A Reasonable Way Investors Can Predict The Future

The Federal Reserve Bank gets a lot of press. But Harry Dent has another idea about what investors should pay attention to.

What is more important than all the central banks of the world?‘ he asked the attendees at the Liberty Forum in sunny St. Kitts. The crowd, perhaps under the tranquilizing effect of the tropics, offered no guesses.

Babies,‘ Harry said.

There are many ways people make their guesses about what might happen in the world. Some people gaze at the stars. Some follow oddball theories of dead economists. Harry Dent – author, newsletter writer, forecaster of market trends – watches babies.

What I do is look at demographics,‘ Harry said, adding specifics, ‘and the predictable things people do as they age.

And that all starts with babies. On the next slide, Harry produced a picture of a cute little bundle in a blue blanket. ‘What’s going to happen to this baby? He’s going to grow up. He’s going to enter the workforce at age 20. He’s going to start earning money, spending money, borrowing money,‘ Harry said. ‘Does anyone know at what age you spend the most you’ll spend in your life?

That would be age 46. Here was something that I thought was interesting. Harry mapped out the typical life cycle of household spending in the chart below. [Read more →]

January 21, 2014   Comments Off