Gold | - Part 3

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Weekly Ramblings of an Australian Stock Trader - incorporating
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Category — Gold

Gold Breaks A Record.

Gold Breaks A Record

What a quarter that was for the gold bugs. Most would rather forget it ever happened.

The metal fell 23% in the last three months, which was an all-time record. Failing a miracle, gold will be down this year for the first time in over a decade.

Gold stocks fared worse still. The Aussie gold stock index is down 55%, while smaller stocks fell further. It has been nothing less than a train wreck on par with the end of the uranium boom.

The question is where does the market go from here? Is this the end of an era, or is a huge opportunity brewing?

A few weeks ago, I advised Diggers and Drillers subscribers to sell our silver position, and also that I was selling my own.

I had to axe a number of gold stocks too as they had fallen unacceptably far. After being a major precious metals bull, there were plenty of emails using words like ‘unacceptable’, ‘major U-turn’, and ‘lost the plot’.

The bottom line was that the market has changed. [Read more →]

July 10, 2013   Comments Off

Investing in gold exploration companies…what’s the point?

As gold continues its descent this morning, no doubt headed to test the support lines at $1,200 an ounce, gold exploration companies on the TSX Venture are a little more desperate than they were yesterday.

Money is drying up for gold exploration companies, bringing down the TSX Venture exchange to 880 at press time.

With a ton of TSX Venture gold exploration companies headed for bankruptcy (likely before the year is over), it begs the question: are we close to a bottom?

I believe we are damn close to a bottom for the senior gold producers (within 5 -7% for the GDX), who have an average cost of production around $1,250 an ounce, but the exploration plays are truly a case by case scenario right now.

You see, for gold exploration stocks to increase in value (broadly speaking) we need two things: a high bullion price (above $1650 an ounce) and and active takeover market. We all know where the price of gold is right now ($1,275), and as I explained yesterday (click here to read report), senior gold producers are more concerned with writing down recent acquisitions as oppose to making purchases. [Read more →]

July 4, 2013   Comments Off

You Need Gold As Insurance Against A Financial System Crash.

You Need Gold As Insurance Against A Financial System Crash

Precious metals have had an awful time recently.

The Federal Reserve is threatening to withdraw quantitative easing (QE). That’s been bad news for precious metals for two reasons.

Firstly, the end of money printing removes one of the more widely-cited reasons for holding precious metals. Secondly, the resulting strong US dollartends to batter the commodities and precious metals sectors, because they are all by and large priced in dollars.

At MoneyWeek, we’ve moved from holding gold as an investment, to owning it as portfolio insurance. But is it even worth holding as insurance anymore?

I believe so, for reasons I’ll outline below. And if you’re a trader, now might even be a good time to take a little punt on gold[Read more →]

July 4, 2013   Comments Off

After the Correction: Gold Stocks Set for the Biggest Gains.

After the Correction: Gold Stocks Set for the Biggest Gains

Don’t look now…but gold stocks are soaring!

Maybe my screen’s upside down…

No, that’s not it. Maybe gold stocks really are going up after all!

Since I wrote to you last week explaining why gold stocks had bottomed, the All Ords Gold Index (XGD) is up by 9%, and the Market Vectors Gold Miners index (GDX) is up by 12%.

Many stocks have fared much better. Northern Star (NST) is up by 28%, Troy (TRY) is up by 16%, and Beadell (BDR) is up by 20%.

These are impressive short-term moves, and are a clear signal to sit up and pay attention. And if you thought you may have missed the boat, think again.

This is just the beginning… [

June 5, 2013   Comments Off

The Best Contrarian Play on Gold I’ve Ever Seen…

The Best Contrarian Play on Gold I’ve Ever Seen…

Calling it ‘Wetting the baby’s head‘ is pure genius.

It sounds so innocent. All the boys get their leave pass. And before you know it: mayhem.

It was a fun night out celebrating the arrival of a mate’s baby son last Friday.

That is apart from when one of the guys wanted to talk about gold.

He pounced on me for a comment on the least loved metal in the market, and normally I’d be up for it. But I couldn’t have thought of anything I’d rather chat about less.

It was written all over me. He said, ‘Wow! When the gold bull goes quiet – THAT’S when I start buying.’

And I’ve got to say, he’s right. [

May 29, 2013   Comments Off

When Soros Buys Gold Stocks, You Better Take Note…

When Soros Buys Gold Stocks, You Better Take Note…

George Soros has built a $20 billion personal fortune from scratch, over a fifty-five year career.

And it’s just been reported that he has been buying one of the most deeply unloved parts of the market…

Resource stocks.

When one of the wealthiest and most experienced investors in the world is buying something, it often pays to do the same…

Resource stocks don’t have many friends right now. After two years of falls, in terms of ‘excitement factor’, resource stocks currently rate close to having a root canal.

But Soros knows a thing or two about investing. One of these things is that you should buy when no one else wants to. Understanding this fact helped Soros’ own fund notch up an incredible average of 20% a year for 40 years.

But not only is Soros buying into the unloved sector of resources, he’s buying into possibly the most despised subsector within it[Read more →]

May 23, 2013   Comments Off

Shareholders in Gold Miners are in Revolt — It’s Time to Buy.

Shareholders in Gold Miners are in Revolt — It’s Time to Buy

As a sector, gold mining stocks have taken some beating in recent years.

Frankly, it’s been justified. When the price of your key product just keeps on rising, it really shouldn’t be that hard to make money off the back of it. But somehow, the management teams of many gold miners have proven more than capable of squandering their good fortune.

Shareholders are fuming. And with the gold price faltering, and the future less certain, miners can no longer rely on an ever-rising product price to keep them afloat.

But the good news is that this squeeze could be just the thing that gold miners need to kick them into shape.

Here’s why now could be the time to buy[Read more →]

May 15, 2013   Comments Off

Dr. Doom Turns Bullish on Stocks.

This article is contributed by One of the TOP sites for up to date information on the Canadian and US Stock Markets. For more information  subscribe to their free newsletter.

Dear member,

Nouriel Roubini, known by the investing world as ‘Doctor Doom‘ for his constant negative stance on US equitiesand the economy, recently pulled a 180. This past week, in a shocking change of heart, Roubini endorsed US stock markets, bonds and global stocks for the next 2 years.

Roubini, an economics professor at NYU, has become famous for his constant bearish outlook and ability to foresee economic contractions, including the US housing collapse 6 years ago.

Speaking at the Milken Institute Global Conference on Monday, April 30th, Roubini finally capitulated to the awesome power of the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world. Although bearish on equities and global economies for some time, he is now convinced central banks are powerful enough to keep the markets strong - at least for another 2 years.

As an example of the power of a central bank and complicit government, take one look at the Nikkei exchange in Japan which is up over 40% in 6 months (since new Prime Minister and stimulus crazed Shinzo Abe took power). [Read more →]

May 7, 2013   Comments Off

Gold’s in an Uptrend, but for How Long?

Gold’s in an Uptrend, but for How Long?

On the 18th of April, I wrote to you in Money Morning about the huge sell-off in gold. I said that:

A collapse like the one we’ve seen will bring a lot of latent demand to the fore. In fact my expectations are that we’ll see a vicious bounce in the gold price, sooner rather than later.

I think it’s a bit like jumping on an inflated ball in the pool.  The further you push it down the quicker it will whip back in your face.

Fast forward two weeks and the gold price has bounced over US$150 from the intraday lows near US$1,320. That’s a 10% bounce in the price of gold in a couple of weeks.

The latent demand that I was talking about did come out of the woodwork and there was plenty of anecdotal evidence from dealers that physical gold demand went through the roof. The Perth Mint has even been staying open over the weekend to refine gold in order to fill a huge backlog of orders.

If you bought when I suggested a couple of weeks ago then now would be a good time to take a bit of money off the table here, because there is nothing saying that gold is completely out of trouble yet…

The next hurdle for gold to overcome is the US$1,530–1,550 area where gold initially broke down from in April.  A major support level will often become stiff resistance once it is broken so I could imagine gold will have a tough time getting above that level in the short term. [Read more →]

May 6, 2013   Comments Off

Asian Gold Buyers, Goldman Guys and the Wizard of Oz.

Asian Gold Buyers, Goldman Guys and the Wizard of Oz

‘Buyers Scour Asia for Physical Gold’, proclaimed a headline in the Financial Times — in a story buried on page 18, because it relates favourably to goldand gold bugs.

Though it was exiled to newspaper Siberia (Section II, to be precise), theFinancial Times article vividly detailed a scramble across Asian markets for yellow metal.

Indeed, per the FT report, ‘Asia is witnessing one of the strongest waves of physical gold buying in thirty years.’The FT article used terms like ‘feverish buying’, as well as ‘gold rush’, just a week after a massive sell-off of paper gold…

News of Asia’s frantic gold buying raises a legitimate question. What happened to the ‘gold is dead’ meme from the week of the crash?

Wasn’t the apparent selloff supposed to mark a turning point for gold? Isn’t the tide receding for what every good student of Economics 101 has learnt is merely a ‘barbarous relic’, per John Maynard Keynes?

Yet strong Asian gold demand is contrary to Western convention. When the price of something falls, goes the rule, it’s because people are selling product, not buying it, right? Then again, what exactly tumbled in price last week? [Read more →]

May 3, 2013   Comments Off