Gold | - Part 2

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Weekly Ramblings of an Australian Stock Trader - incorporating
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Category — Gold

Why The Real Reason For Owning Gold Has Returned.

Why The Real Reason For Owning Gold Has Returned

And there was the mainstream thinking that gold was dead.

They had it written off.

Yet there it is. It’s back from the dead.

Not only that, but it’s thriving. It’s as though it has a new lease on life.

So what’s next? Is this the end of the rally? Or will it fall in a heap again…just like it did in June?

Here’s our take…

We’ll be straight up with you.

This latest gold rally has taken your editor completely by surprise.

We admitted as much yesterday to our old pal, Sound Money, Sound Investments editor Greg Canavan. Greg says it’s great to see that gold is doing what it’s supposed to do – move in the opposite direction to the stock market.

That fits in with Greg’s view of the market right now, which is that stocks are on the verge of a big drop. [Read more →]

August 30, 2013   Comments Off

War: The Reason To Own Gold.

 ’As the campaign reaches the halfway point…‘ – The Australian

If you follow me on Google+ you’ll know I was actively posting commentary on the situation in Syria.

If there’s one thing worse than a federal election it’s war. But the potential for a war during a federal election is even worse. Politicians love banging on the war drums at the best of times.

But during an election or when the opinion polls are against them, boy, do they like acting the big man…

Maybe you saw some of the headlines and stories in the press. Our ‘favourite’ was the typical chest-beating from British war mongers.

The UK’s Telegraph newspaper reports:

David Cameron to give Syria ultimatum

It’s typical of the political class (especially the private school political class who couldn’t wipe their nose without a nanny showing them how to use a tissue) to talk up war.

As I wrote on my Google+ page, if they can’t win votes through welfare, the only other option is warfare.

As News Ltd reported over the weekend, Kevin Rudd says ‘the burden of proof now lies with the Syrian regime‘ to prove they didn’t use chemical weapons.

How does that work? Call me dumb, but I always thought the burden of proof lay with the accuser, not the accused. As bad as the pictures may be of dead people in Syria, can you really trust the Syrian opposition any more than the Syrian government?

I know I can’t. And that’s why it should really be none of Australia’s business what goes on in the Middle East. [Read more →]

August 28, 2013   Comments Off

Could Gold Really Fall to $500?

Could Gold Really Fall to $500?

The recent market uncertainty is no doubt causing investors some angst. That’s especially true for those in or nearing retirement.  The ‘professionals’ keep reassuring us the global economy is slowly recovering and that this will underpin future market performance.

But this ignores the fact that the economy and markets have the twin props of money printing (QE) and zero interest rate policies (ZIRP) supporting this so-called ‘recovery’.

So when or if central banks remove these props what are the consequences?

The unprecedented levels of central banker intervention are a result of The Great Credit Contraction(GCC). The GCC isn’t your ‘run of the mill’ recession. It’s a result of the collapse of a credit bubble the likes of which the world has never seen before.

And so a genuine recovery can only take place after slowly and painfully removing the massive build-up of debt from the system.

Therefore, it’s dangerous to have an investment strategy that presumes the worst is over and that you’ll shortly see a return to ‘normal service’.

My guess is those who believe in the ‘share market always goes up’ mantra will run out of money and patience long before this market delivers on that Secular Bull Market promise. [Read more →]

August 26, 2013   Comments Off

Following the Money.

feature photo

Australia’s corporate behemoths are publishing results left right and centre. It’s tough to know what to make of the deluge of information, and there’s a lot of shuffling going on. But a few clear trends are emerging.

The big story is that BHP is forging on with its venture into the fertiliser ingredient potash, despite the misgivings of analysts. You can understand why a miner would want to diversify when the media won’t stop writing about the end of the mining boom. BHP managers even spoke of potash becoming the ‘fifth pillar’ of the company, with iron, copper, coal and petroleum being the others.

But $2.6 billion is a rather large investment to make in Canadian mine shafts hoping to find a substitute for chicken poop. Especially when your earnings just came in $800 million lower than expected and profit fell 30% from last year.

It’s not just the mining industry that’s looking shaky.

Suncorp Group’s statutory net profit fell 32% after making a $632 million loss on the sale of its bad loans to Goldman Sachs. Why would a bank take a $600 million plus hit on loans in a healthy mortgage market? It wouldn’t.

Meanwhile, QBE upped its mortgage insurance premiums big time. The reason for the 9% increase is fear. The company is forecasting ‘volatility’ in the housing market in the next few years. And we know what can happen to financial insurers during ‘volatility’ in the housing market, don’t we AIG? [Read more →]

August 23, 2013   Comments Off

How Many Warren Buffett’s in a Bar of Gold?

How Many Warren Buffett’s in a Bar of Gold?

As you should know by now, we’ve got a fairly simple view on gold.

Don’t fuss around with it.

Don’t dwell over when you should buy it.

Just buy it and be done with it.

But that doesn’t mean we aren’t interested in gold and the gold market. From time to time something catches our eye.

That happened yesterday. It reminded us of a way to help tell the end of the gold bear market…and Warren Buffett’s role in determining it…

Yesterday the World Gold Council released its quarterly Gold Demand Trends report.

Given the absolutely brutal performance of gold in recent months, we were keen to flick through it soon after it arrived in our inbox.

To be honest, for most of the past three years we’ve barely paid any attention to this quarterly report. But this time we thought it was worth at least a few minutes of our time.

And we’re glad we did because we were stunned by what we read… [Read more →]

August 19, 2013   Comments Off

Why Now is the Time to Buy Gold Stocks.

Why Now is the Time to Buy Gold Stocks

The time has finally arrived to step up to the plate and buy some beaten up gold stocks. I’ve been waiting for what seems like an eternity for the long term charts on gold to turn more bullish after a gut wrenching fall over the past year.

I’m going to stick my neck out and say that moment has arrived.

The first thing I needed to see was for the weekly MACD to cross above its signal line. You can see from the chart below that the last two times we saw the weekly MACD cross its signal line from below zero the gold price took off to the upside over the next few months.


Gold Price Weekly Chart

Click to enlarge

The first time was actually the beginning of a huge leg up in gold after the crash in 2008. [Read more →]

August 14, 2013   Comments Off

Why You Must Avoid This Big Investing Mistake…

Why You Must Avoid This Big Investing Mistake…

Gold has made it to the business news pages again.

Only this time it’s good news.

Overnight the gold price climbed above USD$1,347 per ounce…a gain of more than 10% in a matter of days.

That’s still a long way from the USD$1,900 peak in 2011. But it’s better than the sub-USD$1,200 level it slumped to last month.

This quick move shows why we tell you to stop thinking about it so much and just buy it. But is it fair to say that after a 10% move? Surely it’s much better to wait for it to fall again and then buy gold

This is one of the biggest dilemmas for investors.

Do you go with the trend or do you assume the short-term price rise is just that – short term, and that the price will soon come back down to a fair level?

We’re quite certain that figuring this out has cost investors more money in missed investment opportunities and actual losses than anything else.

So, what do you do? [

July 25, 2013   Comments Off

Is the Gold Price Set for an Explosive Rebound?

feature photo

In recent months, the price of gold has tumbled. Along the way, lower gold prices have undermined the share price of many mining plays. The yellow metal is selling for its approximate cost of production at many of the world’s largest mines.

Yet for all the gloom and doom within the gold investment space, there are indications that physical gold is becoming scarce. In fact, gold may be setting up for an explosive rebound, both in its nominal price and in the value of companies that mine it…

Here’s the posted price of gold over the past year. We’ve endured a steady retreat from near $1,800 per ounce to the mid-$1,200s. Clearly, people are selling.

Now let’s look at the gold price chart for the past 23 years.

[

July 24, 2013   Comments Off

Why Invest ‘Hard’ When You Can Invest ‘Easy’?

Why Invest ‘Hard’ When You Can Invest ‘Easy’?

Some things are easy.

Some things are hard.

Some people make hard things look easy — like darts players or crane operators.

While others make easy things look hard.

Many investors fall into the latter category. And we’re not just talking about novice investors either. Even the pros can take a simple concept and turn it into something completely unintelligible.

We’ll show you what we mean…

This week the Financial Times claimed that macro hedge fund managers (those who make big bets on big macro-economic events) had come back to the fore after a torrid few years.
The report quoted hedge fund manager Arvin Soh:

‘In Q1 it was all about Japan. Macro managers played that through the Nikkei and the yen. In Q2 it was about getting out of that and shorting precious metals. And in June and July it has been about shorting emerging markets – there have been opportunities in a whole bunch of asset classes.’

Wow! Buying the Nikkei…shorting precious metals…short selling emerging markets. Impressive. Or is it?

Not when you look at the alternative… [

July 22, 2013   Comments Off

With Gold, Don’t Miss the Top.

With Gold, Don’t Miss the Top

During a recent interview, we couldn’t let Jim Rickards (author of Currency Wars) go without asking him about our ‘Zero Hour’ scenario.

As you’ll recall, Zero Hour is the moment the price of physical gold starts to run away from the ‘paper price’ you see on CNBC’s ticker

The most likely catalyst is a chain of events that goes like this…

  • Western central banks have leased their gold to commercial banks like JPMorgan Chase at an interest rate of less than 1%
  • The commercial banks have sold that metal and ploughed the proceeds into assets that earn more than 1%
  • The chain of custody on gold bars has become so cloudy that a major exchange like the Comex in New York is liable to ‘default’ on a gold contract – settling in cash, instead of metal
  • A rush for real metal would then be underway, with its price far outstripping the paper price. [Read more →]

July 18, 2013   Comments Off