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Weekly Ramblings of an Australian Stock Trader - incorporating
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Category — Forex

How the Aussie Dollar is Running Out of Friends, Fast.

How the Aussie Dollar is Running Out of Friends, Fast

I have devoted a lot of time recently pointing out that I thought the Australian dollar was about to fall.

Unlike the mainstream media that waits until something has fallen before writing articles about it, I warned on the 25th of April, when the Australian dollar was trading at US$1.03, that:

The next stop for the Aussie is of course the last major line of support around US$1.015-1.02. I would expect to see some buying around that level but I don’t think it will be enough to turn things around. If that last line of support gives way then you could expect to see the Aussie heading towards parity in short order.

From there the Aussie would be testing parity as well as the lower edge of the symmetrical triangle. If that can’t hold the Australian dollar would run out of friends pretty fast.

Fast forward three weeks and the Aussie is indeed running out of friends fast. Last week I said that:

I think we will see the US$1.015 level give way within the next week or so… From where I sit there is a set of dominoes piled up from here to around US$0.98 and it could happen quicker than most expect once it gets going.[Read more →]

May 20, 2013   Comments Off

The Next Move in the Currency War.

The Next Move in the Currency War

In the world of central banking, the gloves are coming off. You can blame theJapanese.

At the G7 meeting, everyone smiled politely and said that they completely understood why the Japanese were printing unprecedented amounts of money and hammering the yen.

The main reason they gave Japan a free pass is because lots of other countries are hoping to get away with doing the same.

Central banks overseeing around a quarter of the world’s GDP have cut rates this month alone, notes Bloomberg.

The currency wars are just getting started… [

May 17, 2013   Comments Off

Is This the Last Hurrah for the Australian Dollar?

Is This the Last Hurrah for the Australian Dollar?

Some big cracks are finally starting to appear in the Australian dollar.

I’ve been ignoring the Australian dollar for months because it has been caught in a tight range, going nowhere fast.

The buying forces of offshore money coming into Australia in search of yield have been neatly balanced by the selling forces from our weakening terms of trade. The result has been an Aussie dollar seeming to defy gravity and holding steady around US$1.03–$1.05.

But the dumping of commodities over the past week has finally started to apply some extreme pressure to that balance… [Read more →]

April 29, 2013   Comments Off

What You Need to Know About the Currency War.

What You Need to Know About the Currency War

There’s a lot of talk about currency wars these days, but very little understanding about what that means for specific countries, economic growth, inflation, and your pocketbook.

Let’s fix that.

First of all, there has been no declaration of any currency war. And there likely won’t be. That’s because open currency warfare could quickly lead to a mushrooming global crisis.

But that doesn’t mean countries aren’t already engaged in currency battles; they are. They almost always are.

Here’s an over-simplified explanation about how currency wars affect you… [Read more →]

February 28, 2013   Comments Off

The First Shots in a 1930s Style Currency War.

The First Shots in a 1930s Style Currency War

Chances are you’ve heard about the so-called ‘race to the bottom’ in which various industrialized nations are gradually allowing their currencies to depreciate in an attempt to maintain competitive parity.

Forget about it…the real risk right now is an all-out 1930s-style currency war. I know it’s not front-page news yet, but I have a sneaking suspicion it will be shortly.

It’s going to blindside Washington and most of Europe, where central bankers, politicians, and more than a few economists fail to recognize that events from nearly 100 years ago are now primed to repeat themselves…

Worse, it will devastate an entire class of investors who have put their faith in the current economic dogma of endless bailouts and money printing.

Ironically, this currency war won’t start because of international problems. Instead, it will be touched off in earnest because of domestic concerns.

My guess is Japan fires the first shots. [Read more →]

February 18, 2013   Comments Off

An Easy To Follow Profitable Forex Trading Platform.

In a very short space of time, the foreign exchange market has certainly  become the world’s largest financial market. Until only recently it was only the large trading houses that could employ the full potential of the FOREX market.  But thanks to the far-flung use of the internet and other communicating devices this has succeeded in opening up the Forex arena not just to small and medium traders, but also to individual investors.

Because of this more easier access large number of individual traders have leaped into the Forex trading business and are busy making good profits online while trading from their personal computers. In fact, you can also start trading in Forex through one of the many easy to follow & profitable Forex trading platforms that are available on line.

A number of Forex brokers and traders are offering individuals trading platforms through their online trading portals that combine Forex trading services along with other trading options. You can easily become a member of one of these easy to follow & profitable Forex trading platforms and starts making good profits through Forex trading.

But before you start trading it is highly recommended that you gain some knowledge and information about trading and signal interpretation before putting your hard earned money into Forex trading, for while the profits in this business can be very large, the losses can also be very disastrous if you are ill prepared for what lies ahead.

So as a beginner, you should first find a Forex trading platform that you understand well and start trading with only very small amounts, gradually increasing your risks as you come to understand the Forex  market better.

One of the best and easy to follow Forex trading platform services I have found is at Plus500. Their services are very easy to understand for beginners. Plus most importantly they provide a “demo” platform for free. So you can practice trading Forex without putting your own hard won cash at risk.

So why not Click on the Plus500. Banner at the top of this page for more information and take your first step to profitable Forex trading.

February 4, 2013   Comments Off

Here’s the Surprising Winner of the Currency Wars.

Here’s the Surprising Winner of the Currency Wars

It’s war by other means. With the Bank of Japan now buyinggovernment bonds and targeting an inflation rate of 2%, a global race to the bottom is on again.

Along with the Fed’s commitment to ‘quantitative easing’ and the ECB’s promise to buy dodgy Mediterranean economies’ bonds, Japan’s latest move has sparked new fears of a currency war.

Like any other war, this one won’t end well, either.

In fact, this same scenario played out in the 1930s, and the chances of another nasty outcome are quite high.

However, the mathematical reality is that the world’s major currencies can’t all be catastrophically weak against each other. It’s impossible.

But the winner may surprise you. Because as this skirmish unfolds, it is the U.S. Dollar that will likely maintain its value against desperate contenders like the yen, the euro and the pound. [Read more →]

January 30, 2013   Comments Off

Downside in the Yen: Shinzo Abe and the Three Bears.

Japanese Yen

While everyone has been focused on the outcome of the fiscal cliff negotiations there has been a far more interesting development occurring in Japan. I believe this development has had a greater impact on the direction of markets over the last couple of months than most people appreciate.

Shinzo Abe, the new Prime Minister of Japan, has made it very clear that he supports more money printing and a weaker Yen. The lead up to his election saw a very sharp move to the downside in the Yen and this strong trend has continued after the election.

Japanese Yen Monthly Chart

Japanese Yen Monthly Chart
Click here to enlarge

The reason why I find this so fascinating is that the monthly chart of the Japanese yen in US dollars is now looking quite scary indeed. [Read more →]

January 11, 2013   Comments Off

How to Play the Aussie Dollar for Big Stock Returns.

Aussie dollar for big stock returns

If the world economy collapses anytime soon, at least one thing is certain: governments will have a hard time pinning the blame on ‘unfettered’ capitalism or free markets. There’s barely a week without a bureaucrat or politician meddling somewhere and distorting the true picture.

Lately, it’s Shinzo Abe and his grand plan for Japan. And now Wayne Swan and his budget deficit. All this is going to impact on theAustralian dollar.

In today’s Money Weekend we’ll expand on an idea we briefly covered in the Daily Reckoning during the week. If you didn’t catch it, here’s the gist of what we wrote on Tuesday… [Read more →]

December 24, 2012   Comments Off

Why You Should Watch the Japanese Yen.

With the year quickly drawing to a close I thought it was a good idea to look at the big picture in a few key markets.

One of the most interesting recent developments has been the large move in the Japanese yen. The LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) just won the election last Sunday, and the market expects to see far more money printing under the LDP.
A recent Reuters article pointed out that:

‘Even before Japanese voters returned Shinzo Abe’s party to power, he had already won over financial markets with an economic revival plan as seductively simple as economists say it is risky: print money and spend it. Lots of it.

‘The Liberal Democratic Party’s landslide on Sunday is likely to sustain a market rally fuelled by economic stimulus hopes, but Abe’s economic legacy will probably be defined by how he tackles chronic ills that easy money alone cannot fix and that were largely ignored during the campaign.’

So after two decades of printing money and spending it without successfully reviving the Japanese economy, they’ve decided to give it another go.

Japan really is the poster child for failed Keynesian stimulus policies. Their debt to GDP is approaching 240% and their interest rates have been near zero for longer than anyone else and they’re still stuck in a deflationary depression. [Read more →]

December 20, 2012   Comments Off