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Category — oil

The Fundamental and Technical Case for US$150 Oil.

The Fundamental and Technical Case for US$150 Oil

Oil provides more than a third of the energy we use on the planet every day. That’s more than any other energy source.

During the 20th century, cheap oil powered global economic growth. But the golden days of cheap oil are behind us as we move further into the 21st century.

As a matter of fact, the price of oil has quadrupled over the last decade. And since the financial meltdown of 2008-09, world growth has been anaemic at best, partly thanks to high crude oil prices.

But on the fundamental side, investing in the oil story remains attractive and sound.  I’ve taken advantage of key developments in the oil story by recommending quality oil stocks to Diggers and Drillers readers.

With this in mind, let’s take a look at the fundamental story. [Read more →]

June 23, 2014   Comments Off

Peak Oil Just Got Pushed Back Again…

Peak Oil Just Got Pushed Back Again…

‘It’s running out.’

‘There will soon be none left.’

‘The world is heading for disaster.’

‘Peak oil is upon us.’

It’s a nice, if somewhat scary idea. It’s the idea that the world is about to run out of oil.

It’s also complete junk. The fact is, the world currently has more oil in reserves than anyone could possibly have imagined…

We’ve explained before how things have shaped up in the oil market in recent years.

For years folks in the US warned about a looming oil crisis. They said it would be the trigger for an economic collapse as either the world ran out of oil or the Middle East effectively held the US to ransom by withholding oil supplies.

Then the oil price began to climb — $40, then $50, then $60, then $100, then $140. You may even remember that during the commodities boom Goldman Sachs’ chief commodities analyst forecast an oil price of $200 a barrel.

And yet, what happened? To say that nothing has happened wouldn’t be true. But has there been a global energy disaster? No. And why is that?

As we say, the world’s proven oil reserves have never been bigger. Here’s the proof…

Peak oil keeps getting further away

Part of the reason for the record high reserves is precisely because the oil price is so high.

It encourages explorers to look for more of the stuff.

And with oil at US$100 per barrel, previously uneconomical oil zones become viable. This and the development of new technology have made it possible for oil companies to exploit the vast shale oil and gas resources.

That has been a boon for the US oil industry over the past 10 years. And soon enough it could provide a similar boon in the UK and China as both countries seek to exploit their shale resources.

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June 19, 2014   Comments Off

Look, Another ‘Crisis’ That Won’t Hurt Energy Stocks.

Look, Another ‘Crisis’ That Won’t Hurt Energy Stocks

If the day ends in a ‘y’, you can be sure there will be another crisis to hit the energy markets.

The latest crisis is Iraq.

A bunch of Islamist militants are seeking to take over the country.

That poses a threat to Iraq’s oil supplies.

Without Iraqi oil, the world economy could grind to a halt and the oil price could go to US$200 a barrel.

Hang on a minute. It feels as though we’ve gone back in a time machine to 1999.

That was when OPEC and Middle East oil was important. But today, there are plenty of other places to get oil. This crisis is yet another scare that won’t have any impact on the world economy whatsoever… [Read more →]

June 17, 2014   Comments Off

It’s Boomtime in The Resources Sector and Nobody’s Watching…

It’s Boomtime in The Resources Sector and Nobody’s Watching…

Where most people see threats, we see opportunities.

In recent months there have been plenty of threats.

Count them.

Russia. Ukraine. Crimea. China.

Even Argentina and Brazil have emerged as threats to the bull market recovery. Not forgetting the most recent threat — the coup in Thailand.

There have doubtless been and will be many more threats.

On the other hand there have been and will be many more opportunities. None more so than in oil and gas…

We’ve banged on the resources drum for over a year.

There’s no doubt that we started banging too early…perhaps about a year too early.

But that’s OK. As a contrarian investor, it’s pretty darn hard to pick the exact time a market will turn.

All you can do is form a big picture view on what you expect to happen, and then back that view. Naturally, if it looks as though you’ve got something completely wrong then you should reevaluate and move on.

But if you’ve got the right theory but the wrong timing, quitting is the worst thing you can do. It’s just a matter of slowly building a position and waiting for the market to prove you right.

In the case of resources, that time is approaching. Resources stocks are about to turn. [Read more →]

June 6, 2014   Comments Off

This Contrarian Indicator Means Good News for Oil and Gas Stocks.

This Contrarian Indicator Means Good News for Oil and Gas Stocks

There’s a revolution coming.

In fact, it’s already here.

It’s an energy revolution. Of a kind perhaps not seen since wildcatters successfully drilled for oil at Spindletop, Texas in January 1901.

And as usual, just when the mainstream should be buying into this revolution, they’re doing the opposite, they’re selling.

What on earth are they thinking…?

For some time we’ve written about one of the greatest energy turnaround stories of all time.

If you go back just 20 years, all the talk in the US was of a looming energy crisis. The US was at the mercy of the OPEC oil cartel.

It was consuming way more oil than it produced.

And of course back then the thought of an oil crisis was that it would come if the crude oil price hit US$40 a barrel. So if oil hit US$100 a barrel that would be an unmitigated disaster, right?

Wrong. Oil at US$100 and above has proven to be the single most important factor in making sure the US avoided an oil crisis. [Read more →]

May 12, 2014   Comments Off

What America’s Energy Blunder Means for Oil.

What America’s Energy Blunder Means for Oil

Here’s a quiz for you.

Can you name the top three countries by proven oil reserves?

The top spot may surprise you. It’s Venezuela.

The number two spot is more obvious. It’s Saudi Arabia.

What about number three?

You won’t get this one. But don’t feel bad about it. The energy industry has gone through big changes in recent years, and even bigger changes are on the way…

It may surprise you to know that the country with the third largest proven oil reserves is Canada.

That’s an impressive feat for a country often disparaged as being the 51st US state, and for its people’s fondness for putting bacon on pancakes.

But it turns out there’s more to Canada than meets the eye. With 10.4% of the world’s proven oil reserves, Canada is ahead of Iran and Iraq, which have 9.4% and 9% respectively of the world’s proven reserves.

So just how did Canada quietly go about achieving this top three position?

Canada’s oil ‘miners’

Canada derives its strong oil position from the Alberta Oil Sands.

Put simply the Alberta Oil Sands (also known as the Athabasca Oil Sands) covers around 141,000 square kilometres in Canada’s Alberta province. [Read more →]

May 1, 2014   Comments Off

Myanmar’s Untouched Natural Gas Reserves.

Myanmar’s Untouched Natural Gas Reserves

If I could put all of my money into Myanmar, I would. Myanmar is in the same place China was in early 1979, when Deng Xiaoping said “we have to do something new”. Myanmar is now opening up and it’s the next economic frontier in Asia.

Jim Rogers, commodities guru and co-founder Quantum Fund

 In 1962 Myanmar (or Burma as it was then called) was the single richest country in Asia.

It was fast on its way to becoming the second developed nation in Asia after Japan.

The country was abundant in rubies, oil, and valuable timber. It also had the largest qualified and educated workforce in Southeast Asia.

The main temple in Myanmar’s Royal City of Yangon even has a diamond the size of a fist sitting on top of the central spire!

In a way, due to its natural resources Myanmar was the El Dorado of Asia. El Dorado was the mythical South American city nicknamed the ‘Lost City of Gold’.

According to legend, El Dorado was abundant with gold. The tribal chiefs and tribe members all wore gold. Gold earrings, gold pendants, gold plaques, and gold crowns.

Attracted by the tales of riches, Spanish fortune hunters (conquistadores) risked their lives trekking through uncharted territory. But it was a futile search.

While local tribes used gold for ceremonial purposes, the amount of gold discovered by the Spanish conquistadores was nowhere near the amount promised by the legends.

It turned out El Dorado was a myth…it didn’t exist. But Myanmar isn’t a myth. It exists, and more than that, it potentially hosts the world’s fifth largest conventional natural gas field… [Read more →]

February 20, 2014   Comments Off

BHP Billiton’s Half a Billion Dollar Gamble.

BHP Billiton’s Half a Billion Dollar Gamble

When you think of oil and gas investments, the Caribbean nation of Trinidad and Tobago isn’t the first place that springs to mind.

However, BHP Billiton think they might be onto their next big oil find. Or gas.

They’re not sure which.

Considering companies spend millions of dollars on data before acquiring a lease or plot, you’d think they would be more certain.

Anyway, it doesn’t matter to them whether it’s oil or gas. It’s gonna be big. BHP has thrown down a massive $500 million to begin a 3D seismic exploration within the next three months. And they have committed another $500 million for drilling wells and possible production.

Given that sort of financial commitment, you can assume they’re confident they’ll find something.

The thing is, while Trinidad does produce oil and gas, it’s mostly onshore or in shallow waters. Like the Angostura shallow water oil rig, which BHP has a 45% interest in.

But the thing is, in 2012 BHP acquired four blocks in a deep water area.

The data is limited, and the basins around the islands are vastly underexplored. [Read more →]

February 11, 2014   Comments Off