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BetOnMarkets Weekly Briefing. 22nd. June

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Sharemarket - Shares & Stocks
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Monday, 22 June 2009 04:55

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BetOnMarkets Weekly Briefing


Contents This Week:

    * Economic calendar for week 22nd -  26th June
    * Commentary: The week ahead.

Economic Calendar for week 22nd - 26th June

**Note: All times GMT, not DST**

PLEASE NOTE - All times GMT

Monday June 22nd:

GE - 08:00 - German IFO Business Climate.

Tuesday June 23rd:

GE - 06:00 - GFK German Consumer Climate.
FR - 06:45 - French Consumer Spending.
FR - 07:00 - French Flash Manufacturing PMI.
FR - 07:00 - French Flash  Services PMI.
GE - 07:30 - German Flash Manufacturing PMI.
GE - 07:30 - German Flash Services PMI.
EU - 08:00 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
EU - 08:00 - Flash Services PMI.
UK - 08:30 - BA Mortgage Approvals.
US - 14:00 - Existing Home Sales.
US - 14:00 - HPI M/M.
US - 14:00 - Richmond Manufacturing Index.

Wednesday June 24th:

EU - 08:00 - Current Account.
UK - 10:00 - CBI Realised Sales.
US - 12:30 - Core Durable Goods Orders M/M.
US - 12:30 - Durable Goods Orders M/M.
UK - 13:30 - Inflation Report Hearings.
US - 14:00 - New Home Sales.
US - 14:30 - Crude Oil Inventories.
UK - 14:45 - BOE Gov King Speaks.
US - 18:15 - FOMC Statement.
US - 18:15 - Federal Funds Rate.

Thursday June 25th:

EU - 09:00 - Industrial New  Orders M/M.
US - 12:30 - Unemployment Claims.
US - 12:30 - Final GDP Q/Q.
US - 12:30 - Final GDP Price Index Q/Q.
US - 14:00 - Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies.
US - 14:30 - Natural Gas Storage.

Friday June 26th:

GE - 06:00 - German Import Prices M/M.
US - 12:30 - Core PCE Price Index.
US - 12:30 - Personal Spending M/M.
US - 12:30 - Personal Income M/M.
US - 13:55 - Revised UOM Consumer Sentiment.
US - 13:55 - Revised UOM Inflation Expectations.

EU - Europe wide
FR - France
UK - United Kingdom
US - United States
GE - Germany

The week ahead.

It seems like the stock markets have lost their magic, as the FTSE has dipped back into the red for the year. Concern over expensive oil, and worse than expected UK retail sales numbers, has forced traders to lighten their holdings. With their risk appetite waning, we are seeing money flowing back into US treasuries, which is being helped by supportive comments from Russia regarding the strength of the dollar as a reserve currency.

The biggest shocker of the week was the price of oil, which managed to trade within a small range, amid attacks on an oil field in Nigeria. Some analysts pointed to the fact that traders are afraid to push the price of oil any further without more support from the economic data. Unfortunately for traders next week is very light on important economic data.

It was another week of uncertainty as fears of a bear market bounce continued to circulate, causing traders and analysts to be cautious of putting more money into the market.

Next week, economic data due to be released will include; more housing data from US, along with the final reading of the US GDP numbers. While many analysts are expecting an increase of new home sales, it could be argued that they are being overly optimistic.

 

Over the last few weeks the 10 year bonds have been increasing in price, which has a negative effect on the price of mortgage rates, and many believe these numbers will come out worse than expected. There should be no surprise when it comes to the US GDP numbers; however this is not set in stone. Should the numbers come out worse than expected, oil prices which have priced in a bottom and a recovery, will be sold off heavily, and might end up in the 60 dollar per barrel area.

While gold prices were rejected from the 980.00 level, we are probably not going to see them fall back into the 750 dollar level, like they did last summer. In fact with uncertainty in the equities market intensifying, gold bears will be hard pressed to get the price of gold anywhere close to the 910 level. With that in mind, a 10 day ‘no touch’ bet on GOLD/USD, with a trigger at 900.00, could pay a potential 18% ROI.




 

 

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